That's the thing, we have already lost 2 possibly 3 generations of potential new readers since the direct market rose to ascendancy and the newsstands disappeared. Comics could only be discovered by those going to specialty destination shops (and bookstores are that too, though not as niche as a comic shop). We can see the effect of this already in circulation numbers where currently only the top 2-3 books break 100k is sales (for perspective, X-Men was selling about 150K when it was demoted to a bi-monthly reprint book in the early 70s and Power Man and Iron Fist had sales of about 108K in the last statement of ownership when it was a bi-monthly book that cancelled in the 80s).

That's 2-3 generations of not repopulating the reader base. Worse though is that's 2-3 generations of parents not introducing their kids to comics either, and not passing on the basics of comic literacy to those kids, so the effects will last more than those generations themselves. It makes the task of introducing new younger readers to comics even more difficult, as cognitive studies and educational research shows that children develop their reading proclivities, aptitudes, and interests before they enter kindergarten and the primary source of those factors is the parents. Parents who read to pre-schoolers and have their kids interact with books even before the kids can read enculturate literacy and reading skills, building foundation schools can build on and allowing those children to develop the literacy skills faster, and with higher aptitudes. Children learn by watching what parents do. If parents don't interact with comics, have an interest in comics, etc. kids aren't likely to develop it.

It was a little different when comics were ubiquitous. Where kids could be introduced to comics at friends' houses, at the local barbershop, at drug stores, newsstands, in the Sunday papers, etc. etc. Comics were everywhere and many people interacted with them on some level or other, so the enculturation of comics literacy could come from many different sources. Such is not the case today.

Nothing loses a child's interest quicker than frustration. Even if they somehow discover comics these days, if they lack comic literacy, interacting with them will be a frustrating experience and not one that will likely engender a love of comics. So if I get a licensed Paw Patrol comic (shout out to Nate Lovett who I saw this weekend who works on the property and does a hell of a job) but I lack the fundamental skills to have a pleasant reading experience with it, what's the chance I will look for more comics when there are other options I do get a pleasant experience from?

Comics literacy is not the same as regular literacy. It's not just reading the text, it's understanding what all the visual cues (from caption boxes to dialogue balloons, to panel borders to panel order, to breaking panel borders, to what order to move from panel to panel, to understanding visual scene switches, etc. etc. etc.) that are part and parcel of reading comics and not prose. They are often not intuitive or instinctual and depend on previous experiences, which most children (and most people in the lost 2-3 generations of readers) lack. Give someone who is not comics literate a manga collection and an American comics to read. There are different comics literacies required for each. Front to back, back to front, left to right, right to left, different kinds of transitions, different visual storytelling techniques, etc. all making each a different and unique reading experience and different form prose so normal literacy skills are often not enough to decode the comics in a way that makes it a pleasant experience for a new reader. If the experience is unpleasant or frustrating, all the work done to get them to find a comic is wasted, because they won't come back, especially not in a world where there are so many other options available and so many of those available at their fingertips with a push of a button.

So yes, I think the current 10-up generation of readers is lost to comics if comics continue to do things the way they always have. The big 2 and the direct market are operating as if it is still the late 20th century, and we are almost 2 decades of technological and market changes from that. And those changes have reshaped the entertainment industry and changed consumer expectations. Comics have to adapt or die. I think future generations of readers will also be lost unless significant and substantial changes are made, especially since the current consumer base will continue to shrink through attrition (loss of interest is the more pleasant attrition cause, but mortality is the other).

I have said it before, and will say it again. It is not a case of if you build it, they will come. That's not happening. You have to go out and get them, and you have to have an outreach program that provides them with a way to gain the skills necessary for comics to be a non-frustrating experience. Even if they might be interested in the subject matter of the comics they happen to discover, the actual interaction with them needs to be a positive experience to engender the interest in more comics and eventually the love of comics that will make them regular readers of the medium.

Our generation assumes a lot of those comic literacies are in place. They are not. We assume anyone exposed to comics will love them like we did, but the circumstances are different now, the factors which allowed us to develop the love of comics are gone and a new set of circumstances are in place because time has passed and the world has changed. What worked when we were kids isn't going to work now because too many factors are different, and unless you can regress all those market and technological factors (and you can't), new solutions that work in current circumstances have to be developed. Finding a way to get comics in the hands of potential readers is only the smallest of first steps. That's why it is so important to find the right comics to be people's first experiences when you recommend comics to others. Giving them something that will be an unpleasant or frustrating experience for them (remember they don't have your likes, tastes, and experiences or your foundational knowledge of comics and comics literacy) is going to turn them off comics, not turn them on to it. It's important to know the audience and not assume they are a mirror image of yourself.

-M