Confessor
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Post by Confessor on Jun 27, 2016 17:53:20 GMT -5
1) The EU wants to continue to exist. If they let the UK leave and give them a good trade deal going forward, the EU disintergrates. That's not even an arguement, just a fact. Also, the UK needs Europe trade wise alot more than Europe needs the UK. Just trying to answer your first point as I see it, wildfire2099... Alhough it's only my opinion, I think the Brexit vote on Thursday was the end of the EU. Although it may take a while, the UK deciding to leave the union was the first (pretty sizable) crack in the entire construct, which will eventually bring the whole thing down. There are far more euro-sceptic countries than the UK in the EU -- such as France, Netherlands, and Denmark -- who will soon be pressuring their own governments to hold a referendum, I believe. In fact, according to an article I read on The Guardian website today, it's already started with some Dutch politicians campaigning for a referendum and, in France, Marine Le Pen has already said that she would hold a referendum if she becomes French president (although I'm not sure how likely that is to happen). In addition, another article I read the other day in The Telegraph (which is not a paper I normally read, BTW) noted that in a recent survey, more than 50% of French and Italian citizens want a vote on the union, and half of those surveyed believed that Britain leaving the EU would cause a domino effect. As for your comment about the UK needing Europe more than Europe needs the UK, that's not really true. We both need each other. The UK is the EU's largest trading partner. As I think I may've said earlier in this thread, we've already seen how quickly the EU wants to facilitate us leaving, because uncertainty hurts them and their markets too. They need to make sure that the wheels of commerce and trade continue to turn easily for their own stability. Germany's own Angela Merkel was already playing diplomat earlier this week, by saying that "there's no need [for the EU] to be nasty" in the Brexit negotiations. The EU needs us and they need us badly -- just as we need them. It's in everybody's interests to make this work as well as we all can. If you look at which countries actually pay in the most to the EU, against what they take out, you will see that the EU is basically propped up by the UK and Germany. Those two countries are the economic powerhouses that support the whole thing. One of those powerhouses has just voted to leave. Though it may take years or even decades to fully crumble, I think the EU's days are now numbered. |
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Confessor
CCF Mod Squad
Not Bucky O'Hare!
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Post by Confessor on Jun 27, 2016 18:00:21 GMT -5
Hey guys, I just want to issue another in-thread reminder that it's OK to attack ideas, but it is not OK to attack each other, make personal remarks about each other or belittle each other's opinions. Nothing in this thread has been over the line yet, but there's been a few close calls, so let's not let things get too heated. Thanks.  |
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Confessor
CCF Mod Squad
Not Bucky O'Hare!
Posts: 10,202
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Post by Confessor on Jun 27, 2016 18:12:15 GMT -5
In the first paragraph of that Wikipedia article it clearly states that the European Coal and Steel Community (which was established in 1951) was not the same thing as the EU (which was established through the Maastricht Treaty in 1993). The EU eventually grew out of the former, but -- and here's the crucial point -- the European Economic Community (or Common Market as it's better known here in the UK) that we voted to join in the '70s was a separate orginisation facilitating economic integration among member states. Unfortunately, it was absorbed into the European Union in the early '90s, but it was not the same thing as the European Coal and Steel Community. The UK never voted to join that or what has subsequently become the EU Superstate. |
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Post by Arthur Gordon Scratch on Jun 27, 2016 18:16:59 GMT -5
There are far more euro-sceptic countries than the UK in the EU -- such as France, Netherlands, and Denmark - in France, Marine Le Pen has already said that she would hold a referendum if she becomes French president (although I'm not sure how likely that is to happen). more than 50% of French citizens want a vote on the union The UK is the EU's largest trading partner. If you look at which countries actually pay in the most to the EU, against what they take out, you will see that the EU is basically propped up by the UK and Germany. Many things to say about that. I call bullshit on all those statements about France. True, Lepen wants the referendum, but France will never leave the EU, it is in our DNA now, we complain about the EU so often, but the numbers against it were about 20% 20 years ago, still the same when you look at the current global french surveys. And Lepen will never get elected, the sociology isnt in her favor and never will unless cataclysmic events. I can't speak for Denmark and Netherlands, but still, I don't see that happening anytime soon as the youth of those countries are massivly pro europe. The largest trading partner of the EU is Germany, by far, unless you mean from when the UK leaves the EU? And still, I'd really like stats on that. It's possible, but it's not that obvious. The ratio of lands most giving to the EU compared to what they get is obviously led by countries such as Sweden, Finland, Denmark. Plus, that is completely subjective as the notion of "what they take out" is completly impossible to objectivly account. There are about 2.2 british citizens living and working within the EU as of 2010, numbers increasing, just about the same amount as the global amount of EU citizens living in the UK. Both those numbers indicate a huge wealth for the UK in so many ways. The amount of tourism the UK gets is highly dependant on the EU and so forth. So there might be an angle that would indicate thet the UK pays more to the EU comparatively then all the other countries then they get, but sincerely, I don't believe that for a second, certainly not in the span of 43 years of membership. I might be wrong, but I haven't seen any evidence pointing at what those papers you quote reported. What I'm pretty sure of is that if Europe collapses, we're looking at a new world war within a decade. |
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Post by Arthur Gordon Scratch on Jun 27, 2016 18:26:40 GMT -5
In the first paragraph of that Wikipedia article it clearly states that the European Coal and Steel Community (which was established in 1951) was not the same thing as the EU (which was established through the Maastricht Treaty in 1993). The EU eventually grew out of the former, but -- and here's the crucial point -- the European Economic Community (or Common Market as it's better known here in the UK) that we voted to join in the '70s was a separate orginisation facilitating economic integration among member states. Unfortunately, it was absorbed into the European Union in the early '90s, but it was not the same thing as the European Coal and Steel Community. The UK never voted to join that or what has subsequently become the EU Superstate. Of Course it wasn't the exact same thing, as it evolved, several times. But it's pretty clear that this was the start of the European Union, that its goal was peace between recent enemies, and it has been taught so in french and german school at least since the mid 80ies ( I can't vouch for earlier, obviously, but I feel I can safely bet it was the same). Adenauer and Schuman are considered as the fathers of Europe, and Mitterand and Koehl as the ones who made it a fuctionnal reality. The UK was always siding with the US and only partaking when it benefited them, I don't know how general or accurate that statement is, but that is how the common perception has been for decades. And fine, so be it, we'll take what we get, but this idea that the UK is the big driving force of the EU is quite odd. |
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Confessor
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Post by Confessor on Jun 27, 2016 18:42:29 GMT -5
There are far more euro-sceptic countries than the UK in the EU -- such as France, Netherlands, and Denmark - in France, Marine Le Pen has already said that she would hold a referendum if she becomes French president (although I'm not sure how likely that is to happen). more than 50% of French citizens want a vote on the union The UK is the EU's largest trading partner. If you look at which countries actually pay in the most to the EU, against what they take out, you will see that the EU is basically propped up by the UK and Germany. Many things to say about that. I call bullshit on all those statements about France. True, Lepen wants the referendum, but France will never leave the EU, it is in our DNA now, we complain about the EU so often, but the numbers against it were about 20% 20 years ago, still the same when you look at the current global french surveys. And Lepen will never get elected, the sociology isnt in her favor and never will unless cataclysmic events. I can't speak for Denmark and Netherlands, but still, I don't see that happening anytime soon as the youth of those countries are massivly pro europe. Well, fair enough...I'll take your word for that. You are, after all, the Frenchman here. I'm just repeating what I've read and seen in the media over here. The largest trading partner of the EU is Germany, by far, unless you mean from when the UK leaves the EU? And still, I'd really like stats on that. It's possible, but it's not that obvious. Yes, I meant when we leave the EU. I should've clarified. The UK is the 9th largest export economy in the world and due to our close proximity would be the EU's largest trading partner, so I've read in recent weeks. Of Course it wasn't the exact same thing, as it evolved, several times. But it's pretty clear that this was the start of the European Union... ...which the UK never voted to join! I'm not sure how to make this any simpler, my friend. We voted to join the EEC and that, in time, was absorbed into the federal European Union, which we, as a nation, did not vote to join. There really isn't much more I can say on this matter. Hopefully you understand. |
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Post by Arthur Gordon Scratch on Jun 27, 2016 18:57:30 GMT -5
Of Course it wasn't the exact same thing, as it evolved, several times. But it's pretty clear that this was the start of the European Union... ...which the UK never voted to join! I'm not sure how to make this any simpler, my friend. We voted to join the EEC and that, in time, was absorbed into the federal European Union, which we, as a nation, did not vote to join. There really isn't much more I can say on this matter. Hopefully you understand. Yes, but with that kind of rationalizing, apart from Croatia, no one voted to join the current version of the EU. In order for the US to form NATO, they had to change their constitution because it didn't allow the US to form any kind of military alliance outside of declared war time. Big organisations constantly evolve, that's in their nature. That point you're making is IMHO a little stuborn. As you can see, federalism was in the DNA of the ECSC from the get go, they never hid that this was a reaching goal. What I doubt is that any of us could actually find documentation from 1973 pointing that this was or wasn't in the least brought up before the UK joined. BTW, as you can see, I'm fairly enthusiastic about that topic and have some level of knowledge about it, but I must confess I don't think I ever learned about the actual legal process which saw the UK join. Anyone? |
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Post by hondobrode on Jun 27, 2016 21:37:05 GMT -5
My friends, my friends, my friends
Like Arthur, I love a good debate, and, being a lowly American in all this Euro-talk, I don't feel I have a leg to stand on.
This has been confusing but highly entertaining.
Also, let's watch the language people.
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Post by tingramretro on Jun 28, 2016 0:30:07 GMT -5
In the first paragraph of that Wikipedia article it clearly states that the European Coal and Steel Community (which was established in 1951) was not the same thing as the EU (which was established through the Maastricht Treaty in 1993). The EU eventually grew out of the former, but -- and here's the crucial point -- the European Economic Community (or Common Market as it's better known here in the UK) that we voted to join in the '70s was a separate orginisation facilitating economic integration among member states. Unfortunately, it was absorbed into the European Union in the early '90s, but it was not the same thing as the European Coal and Steel Community. The UK never voted to join that or what has subsequently become the EU Superstate. This is the point which seems to be causing the misunderstanding. I don't recall te European Coal and Steel Community ever even being a consideration in the UK. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever even heard it mentioned before. It certainly had nothing to do with Britain. |
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Post by tingramretro on Jun 28, 2016 1:37:39 GMT -5
1) The EU wants to continue to exist. If they let the UK leave and give them a good trade deal going forward, the EU disintergrates. That's not even an arguement, just a fact. Also, the UK needs Europe trade wise alot more than Europe needs the UK. If you look at which countries actually pay in the most to the EU, against what they take out, you will see that the EU is basically propped up by the UK and Germany. Those two countries are the economic powerhouses that support the whole thing. One of those powerhouses has just voted to leave. Though it may take years or even decades to fully crumble, I think the EU's days are now numbered. I give it ten years. |
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Post by Arthur Gordon Scratch on Jun 28, 2016 5:07:03 GMT -5
Well, maybe, maybe not : remember that countries like France, Germany and Italy were there from the begining and feel so strongly about it that they were ready to give up their centuries old currency for the EU, not anything the UK was ready to. I really feel most of the engish don't really understand what the european union means to us. Many of the euro-septics will actually feel relieved and better about it with Britain out when it didn't want to accept the EU currency :/
But still, does any of our UK friends remember the 1973 process that saw you join the EU?
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Post by dupersuper on Jun 28, 2016 5:26:52 GMT -5
Some here have given economic reasons they voted exit, but I've gotta' say, from an outsider watching newsbites, it really just looks like older racists screwed the younger generations, immigrants, emmigrants and the stock market. Still, Trump's behind them...
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Post by tingramretro on Jun 28, 2016 6:05:52 GMT -5
Well, maybe, maybe not : remember that countries like France, Germany and Italy were there from the begining and feel so strongly about it that they were ready to give up their centuries old currency for the EU, not anything the UK was ready to. I really feel most of the engish don't really understand what the european union means to us. Many of the euro-septics will actually feel relieved and better about it with Britain out when it didn't want to accept the EU currency :/ But still, does any of our UK friends remember the 1973 process that saw you join the EU? Again: we didn't join the EU in 1973. We joined the E.E.C, a totally different organisation. From Britain's point of view, it was purely about trade, not political union. I was just a kid back then, I'm afraid. I do know there was a referendum on our staying in the E.E.C in 1975, but I don't remember it. I do, however, remember 1992, when we did find ourselves in the EU. The full ramifications of it were not fully understood by a lot of us, I feel. |
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Post by tingramretro on Jun 28, 2016 6:07:52 GMT -5
Some here have given economic reasons they voted exit, but I've gotta' say, from an outsider watching newsbites, it really just looks like older racists screwed the younger generations, immigrants, emmigrants and the stock market. That is not the case, and I find that remark personally offensive. |
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Post by Roquefort Raider on Jun 28, 2016 6:23:05 GMT -5
Some here have given economic reasons they voted exit, but I've gotta' say, from an outsider watching newsbites, it really just looks like older racists screwed the younger generations, immigrants, emmigrants and the stock market. That is not the case, and I find that remark personally offensive. I can understand that! I felt the same way when called " traitor" by certain parties after voting against Quebec independence in 95. Yes, populist and anti-immigration politicians were in favour of Brexit, but that doesn't mean that whoever voted the same way agree with all their views, not by a long shot. That would be akin to saying that whoever is in favour of a law-abiding society is a fascist, or that whoever is in favour of state-funded health care is a communist. ... My fellow CCF posters, I beseech thee to keep this discussion civil so that it may continue! (Pretty, pretty please!) |
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