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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2022 15:49:08 GMT -5
An addendum, as I had to attend to something else before I finished my thought.
I don't pay attention to ERA for relievers. It doesn't indicate their effectiveness as it doesn't account for inherited runners they allow to score. What I do look at is walk totals and WHIP. Those tend to give a much netter indication of a relievers effectiveness. How much traffic are they putting on the base paths. How efficient they are. The more efficient a reliever is, the less strain on the bullpen as a whole.
Crawford's current WHIP is 4.0 He has more walks than innings pitched. To me that's not about poor positioning of fielders, soft contact landing and bad luck. It's not being able to locate your pitches. Missing the strike zone and putting it in spots where it's hittable when you do thrown strikes allowing batters to square up the ball. That puts a lot of traffic on the bases and extends innings creating more work for the rest of the bullpen (and high stress work at that) regardless of how many of those runners come across to score.
You're right it's early. ERA is easily fixable with a few good outings. WHIP and walks are not. They tend to run true.
The walks sometimes, especially in young pitchers who get hit hard early in their career, are a sign of fear, afraid to throw strikes because they'll get hit. And that doesn't get better with time. It's gets better with success but sometimes that requires a change of scenery, a step back to step forward. That's just my impression of the kid from afar though.
-M
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Post by Prince Hal on Apr 18, 2022 18:40:39 GMT -5
Oh, I don't think you're far off. As I said, I think he'll go down, but not because he's a lost cause. Two of his walks today could ahve gone either way, and he had a long go of it with Polanco, throwing several good pitches he fouled off at 3-2 before he got the single. WHIP can be like ERA, too. He may also have gone an inning too long, as he did pitch a scoreless seventh.
I think at worst right now he's a WWIP (Worcester Work in Progess).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2022 19:02:29 GMT -5
Oh, I don't think you're far off. As I said, I think he'll go down, but not because he's a lost cause. Two of his walks today could ahve gone either way, and he had a long go of it with Polanco, throwing several good pitches he fouled off at 3-2 before he got the single. WHIP can be like ERA, too. He may also have gone an inning too long, as he did pitch a scoreless seventh. I think at worst right now he's a WWIP (Worcester Work in Progess). Oh I definitely think he has potential. I'm just not sure he's actually ready now and think he needs a season of extended success at AAA to build a better foundation of confidence in his stuff that will serve him well throughout his career. I fear if he doesn't get that, he will go down the Joe Kelly road. All the stuff in the world, and lights out unhittable at times, but at other times, when things got rough, he just tried to throw harder instead of pitch because he wasn't confident in his ability to pitch, just to throw. And the harder he threw, the less he was able to locate and he walked too many and put too many in the heart of the strike zone, which even if you are throwing 100 mph if it's straight and in the heart of the strike zone is extremely hittable. I see far too many young pitchers fall into that when they get rushed up too soon. -M
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Post by Prince Hal on Apr 18, 2022 21:45:52 GMT -5
Oh, I don't think you're far off. As I said, I think he'll go down, but not because he's a lost cause. Two of his walks today could ahve gone either way, and he had a long go of it with Polanco, throwing several good pitches he fouled off at 3-2 before he got the single. WHIP can be like ERA, too. He may also have gone an inning too long, as he did pitch a scoreless seventh. I think at worst right now he's a WWIP (Worcester Work in Progess). Oh I definitely think he has potential. I'm just not sure he's actually ready now and think he needs a season of extended success at AAA to build a better foundation of confidence in his stuff that will serve him well throughout his career. I fear if he doesn't get that, he will go down the Joe Kelly road. All the stuff in the world, and lights out unhittable at times, but at other times, when things got rough, he just tried to throw harder instead of pitch because he wasn't confident in his ability to pitch, just to throw. And the harder he threw, the less he was able to locate and he walked too many and put too many in the heart of the strike zone, which even if you are throwing 100 mph if it's straight and in the heart of the strike zone is extremely hittable. I see far too many young pitchers fall into that when they get rushed up too soon. -M Good comparison. He clearly made the roster because they were allowed to carry more pitchers. Your last line made me think of Kevin Morton and Craig Hansen... The next issue is starting to rear its head: the players who can't go to Toronto b/c they haven't had the vaccine. Tanner Houck will miss a start as a result, which they'll probably give to Whitlock, whcich will affect the games on either side of that because he won't be able to come in to finish games. (Let's leave aside the fact that Houck shuld be in the bullpen to begin with but has been put in the rotation b/c of the fragility of Chris Sale, another unvaccinated guy. No other names have surfaced yet, but they will soon. One report tonight said that the "hitting line-up" is vaxxed, which would mean that JD Martinez had finally relented. But I have yet to hear that he got the shot over the off-season, as Bogaerts and Arroyo did. Naturally, we learned that Plawecki (and two "staff members"), who is vaccinated, tested positive today.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2022 22:36:17 GMT -5
Oh I definitely think he has potential. I'm just not sure he's actually ready now and think he needs a season of extended success at AAA to build a better foundation of confidence in his stuff that will serve him well throughout his career. I fear if he doesn't get that, he will go down the Joe Kelly road. All the stuff in the world, and lights out unhittable at times, but at other times, when things got rough, he just tried to throw harder instead of pitch because he wasn't confident in his ability to pitch, just to throw. And the harder he threw, the less he was able to locate and he walked too many and put too many in the heart of the strike zone, which even if you are throwing 100 mph if it's straight and in the heart of the strike zone is extremely hittable. I see far too many young pitchers fall into that when they get rushed up too soon. -M Good comparison. He clearly made the roster because they were allowed to carry more pitchers. Your last line made me think of Kevin Morton and Craig Hansen... The next issue is starting to rear its head: the players who can't go to Toronto b/c they haven't had the vaccine. Tanner Houck will miss a start as a result, which they'll probably give to Whitlock, whcich will affect the games on either side of that because he won't be able to come in to finish games. (Let's leave aside the fact that Houck shuld be in the bullpen to begin with but has been put in the rotation b/c of the fragility of Chris Sale, another unvaccinated guy. No other names have surfaced yet, but they will soon. One report tonight said that the "hitting line-up" is vaxxed, which would mean that JD Martinez had finally relented. But I have yet to hear that he got the shot over the off-season, as Bogaerts and Arroyo did. Naturally, we learned that Plawecki (and two "staff members"), who is vaccinated, tested positive today. I saw the COVID related news today. I like Houck. He reminds me of a young Eduardo Rodriguez. All the stuff in the world, good variety of pitches, just struggles with location and efficiency so has trouble going deep into games. I think Houck would still be in the rotation if Sale were ready to go. I don't think Rich Hill makes the roster if Sale's ready. I don't think Hill survives the return of Sale and Wacha on the roster. I like Hill, but he's a stopgap fifth starter at this point in his career. I have a sneaking suspicion that if Casas starts hot in AAA, Shaw is not long for the roster either. They'll Keep Casas down long enough to manipulate service time and get another year before arbitration then bring him up. Especially if Dalbec continues to run more cold than hot. I suspect Dalbec could be packaged with a prospect around deadline time to bring in something thy need if they are still in contention. I suspect Xander could be dealt at deadline time if they are not. -M
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Post by Prince Hal on Apr 23, 2022 23:11:38 GMT -5
@mrp, tonight was quite the memorable game despite the loss. The bullpen was immnse, none more so than Kutter Crawford, who pitched the 6th, 7th and 8th, gave up one hit and struck out five. No walks. ERA dropped by almost seven runs. He was nails. Looked unflappable out there. Sox were no-hit through nine; game was scoreless till the tenth, and it looked good for the Sox after Dalbec tripled to drive in the ghost runner and Sox" piled on" with one more.
But... what should have been the game-ending out in the bottom of the tenth was botched, mostly due to a poor throw by Story. Not the first time he's seemed to get the yips when it's not a purely reactive play.
Am I worried? I'm a Sox fan; of course I'm worried.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2022 14:40:33 GMT -5
@mrp, tonight was quite the memorable game despite the loss. The bullpen was immnse, none more so than Kutter Crawford, who pitched the 6th, 7th and 8th, gave up one hit and struck out five. No walks. ERA dropped by almost seven runs. He was nails. Looked unflappable out there. Sox were no-hit through nine; game was scoreless till the tenth, and it looked good for the Sox after Dalbec tripled to drive in the ghost runner and Sox" piled on" with one more. But... what should have been the game-ending out in the bottom of the tenth was botched, mostly due to a poor throw by Story. Not the first time he's seemed to get the yips when it's not a purely reactive play. Am I worried? I'm a Sox fan; of course I'm worried. Of course it turns out that Crawford is among the unvaccinated that has to be placed on the restricted list (along with Houck) because they cannot enter Canada without being vaccinated. So we'll see if the step forward he took creates momentum, or if the layoff will push him back to square one with his location and control. And the Sox defense has been a mixed bag this season, but sadly that's still a 100% improvement over what their defense was like last season. How bad it was got hidden by smoke and mirrors like Renfroe's outfield assist total (a good 50% of which happened because he misplayed or misjudged balls that fell in when they were catchable) and the prevalence of shifts. -M
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Post by Prince Hal on Apr 25, 2022 21:19:45 GMT -5
@mrp , tonight was quite the memorable game despite the loss. The bullpen was immnse, none more so than Kutter Crawford, who pitched the 6th, 7th and 8th, gave up one hit and struck out five. No walks. ERA dropped by almost seven runs. He was nails. Looked unflappable out there. Sox were no-hit through nine; game was scoreless till the tenth, and it looked good for the Sox after Dalbec tripled to drive in the ghost runner and Sox" piled on" with one more. But... what should have been the game-ending out in the bottom of the tenth was botched, mostly due to a poor throw by Story. Not the first time he's seemed to get the yips when it's not a purely reactive play. Am I worried? I'm a Sox fan; of course I'm worried. Of course it turns out that Crawford is among the unvaccinated that has to be placed on the restricted list (along with Houck) because they cannot enter Canada without being vaccinated. So we'll see if the step forward he took creates momentum, or if the layoff will push him back to square one with his location and control. And the Sox defense has been a mixed bag this season, but sadly that's still a 100% improvement over what their defense was like last season. How bad it was got hidden by smoke and mirrors like Renfroe's outfield assist total (a good 50% of which happened because he misplayed or misjudged balls that fell in when they were catchable) and the prevalence of shifts. -M Bobby D. came up with a big E in the eighth tonight. Sometimes his defense is pretty damn good, but at crucial times, he reverts to form. For reasons I never heard, Story didn't play; Arroyo was okay at second, but like virtually every other guy on the roster, he has been essentially 0-for-2022 at the plate. Crawford's replacement in the pen was Tyler Danish, who looks like Travis Shaw's twin brother from the neck down. Devers swinging at everything, so of course never sees anyhting resembling a strike. Also still swings like he has to hit the ball to the moon. And has contracted Renfroe-itis, meaning he swings at the first, second and third pitches, as if that's a rule of the game. And your mention of Renfroe's defense is spot-on. All they did on TV and radio (naturally) was rave about his great arm last year. But the guy inevitably threw to th wrong base, the better to show off that arm, constantly took bad routes to the ball, whic accounted for more than a few of his sno-cone catches. He had as many errors as assists and virtually never ever laid out for a ball, instead relying on his "speed" to catch up to the ball in stride. Needless to say, that didn't usually work. I'm convinced that his horrible defense was the reason they dumped him. Plus his slugging was almost alwyas against bad teams and bad pitchers. He was an absolute dud in the playoffs last season. And his crappy cost us, as so often happens, in the playoffs, when the most was on the line> I was glad to see nhim go.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2022 21:53:21 GMT -5
For reasons I never heard, Story didn't play; I read that because of his late start and missed time in spring training, they have a planned day off for him every few games so he can take it slow getting up to speed to everyday play. Cora mentioned something about that before he tested positive and I think he said he was planning the first game in Toronto as a day off for Story. Eovaldi looked good but it's the same story with him as last year, his stat line looks great, he's dominant for 95% of the time he's out there, but when he gets hit, it goes out of the park and usually results in a no decision for him and then the bullpen coughs it up. He looked great, except for 2 pitches, and both those pitches wound up in the seats. The Sox haven't played a complete game yet this season. They get good starting pitching one night, the bats are asleep or the bullpen implodes. They get some offense and starting pitching, but the defense costs them or a reliever can't keep an inherited runner from scoring. I still put a lot of it on the lack of a full spring training and slate of Grapefruit league games leaving hitting and defense behind the curve in getting ready, but by now they should be in late March ready to start the season mode, but they're not, they're still looking like a team just out of the gate in the Grapefruit league, unfortunately these games count in the standings and we're not playing the Twins every other day. I'll be happy if they can reach the end of May closer to the top of the division than they are to the Orioles, but at this point, I'm not sure that's going to happen. We'll see, but this squad doesn't seem to be gelling, which considering Bogaerts and Devers already have one foot out the door because of lousy offers from the front office and they haven't even bothered to insult Eovaldi with a lowball extension offer yet, is not surprising. At this rate, they're going to be sellers at the deadline, not buyers, but they could still turn things around. Maybe Cora can light a fire under their behinds when he returns form the COVID list, maybe not. -M
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2022 22:00:39 GMT -5
Prince HalTonight's game, case in point. Ok start (not great buy serviceable, might be best of the year so far from Pivetta), offense scored some runs late, and bullpen blows it. Can't get all phases of the game hitting on the same night. Going to be a long season if they can't fix that. -M
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Post by Prince Hal on Apr 26, 2022 22:43:19 GMT -5
Prince Hal Tonight's game, case in point. Ok start (not great buy serviceable, might be best of the year so far from Pivetta), offense scored some runs late, and bullpen blows it. Can't get all phases of the game hitting on the same night. Going to be a long season if they can't fix that. -M And you could see it coming. This was a winnable game in which Whitlock should have been in to nail it down. Just as he should have been in in the Rays game when the Sox had the lead the other day. But no, he has to be put into the rotation because Houck screwed his teammates by not getting the vaccine. What we're seeing is a poorly constructed team delivering just what you'd expect. Dalbec is a millstone who can't be traded, as he might have in the off-season after his "breakout" August; Vasquez is fat, his bat's slow and his defense is now non-existent; Hernandez is reverting to the mean after his torrid post-season stretch; and Jackie's got their fifth or sixth best OBP. Oy. The season is already slipping away. Toronto simply hits the crap out of the ball and the pitching is top-shelf, too. Yanks are streaking with Cole getting the stickum again, now from his backside; Tampa is going to be there all year; and we look like we're going to have our hands full keeping pace with Baltimore. Like every bad team, the Sox can't get good pitching when they hit well enough to win and vice versa. Oy.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2022 22:14:56 GMT -5
Prince HalUgh. Eovaldi throws 7 strong (perfect through 5), the Sox can only manage 1 run in the first inning all night (#5-9 in the line up was 1 for 18 in the game against the Orioles), and the bullpen literally throws the game away in extras because Barnes is a former shadow of himself and can't hold the lead in the 8th. They needed a sweep in Camden to right themselves, but it ain't happening. Bloom needs to really shake up the roster and Frenchy ain't the answer. -M addendum-the Sox starters have a 2.32 ERA over their last 15 (so that's not the issue) but the offense and bullpen can't buy a win. The rotation had a rough start to the season but seem to have righted itself. The rest of the team, not so much. Slow start to rotation I chalk up to not getting stretched out enough because spring training was truncated. The rest have no excuse. -M
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Post by Prince Hal on Apr 30, 2022 23:15:16 GMT -5
Prince Hal Ugh. Eovaldi throws 7 strong (perfect through 5), the Sox can only manage 1 run in the first inning all night (#5-9 in the line up was 1 for 18 in the game against the Orioles), and the bullpen literally throws the game away in extras because Barnes is a former shadow of himself and can't hold the lead in the 8th. They needed a sweep in Camden to right themselves, but it ain't happening. Bloom needs to really shake up the roster and Frenchy ain't the answer. -M addendum-the Sox starters have a 2.32 ERA over their last 15 (so that's not the issue) but the offense and bullpen can't buy a win. The rotation had a rough start to the season but seem to have righted itself. The rest of the team, not so much. Slow start to rotation I chalk up to not getting stretched out enough because spring training was truncated. The rest have no excuse. -M Just now finished watching the game (I DVR'd it because we had friends over earlier) and was about to write you a similar note. Granted, it was the Orioles, but Eovaldi was superb and I was delighted to see him come out for the seventh. Nice to see a real starting pitcher once in a blue moon. Barnes ahsn't been even sub-par since he signed his big contract and Spider-Tac was banned last season, but otherwise the pen hasn't been horrible. But, oy, Sakamura always walks the tightrope. And tonight, he just hauled off and threw flatfooted to third when all we needed was an accurate toss. And you're right, with even average production from the hitters, Sox would at least be a game or two over .500, which would at least make them seem respectable. I nearly did a spit-take when Dave O'Brien says late in the game that JD Martinez might be available to pinch-hit tonight, but that he might even sit tomorrow since Monday's an off-day and he can really recuperate from his abductor pull. I like Verdugo, but a clean-up hitter he ain't. Martinez is -- and I hate to sound like a talk-show cellar-dweller -- soft, soft, soft. Every tweak is an injury, every ache and pain a week on the bench, and though his bat is good, he has lost his fele for the strike zone. Low and outside pitches that he used to take to right-center are now his weak spot. Strikes out on those all the time. Vasquez is overweight and swings a slow bat. Hernandez has been either too slow or too quick at the plte. He leads the team in foul homers. Still solid in center, at least. And poor Bobby Dalbec. He looks like a lost soul at the plate. Meanwhile, Rizzo leads the AL in homers, IIRC. A sweep would have meant a 5-5 trip and some hope or mild optimism, but this looks like a team that's already seeing the season slipping away as three excellent teams keep pulling away from them. You really have to wonder if they are going to hit, as every Sox player and flack keeps assuring us as if this were April 13th, not the 30th.. How Cora isn't cursing out Bloom for his lack of moves in the off-season is beyond me.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2022 23:53:53 GMT -5
Prince Hal Ugh. Eovaldi throws 7 strong (perfect through 5), the Sox can only manage 1 run in the first inning all night (#5-9 in the line up was 1 for 18 in the game against the Orioles), and the bullpen literally throws the game away in extras because Barnes is a former shadow of himself and can't hold the lead in the 8th. They needed a sweep in Camden to right themselves, but it ain't happening. Bloom needs to really shake up the roster and Frenchy ain't the answer. -M addendum-the Sox starters have a 2.32 ERA over their last 15 (so that's not the issue) but the offense and bullpen can't buy a win. The rotation had a rough start to the season but seem to have righted itself. The rest of the team, not so much. Slow start to rotation I chalk up to not getting stretched out enough because spring training was truncated. The rest have no excuse. -M Just now finished watching the game (I DVR'd it because we had friends over earlier) and was about to write you a similar note. Granted, it was the Orioles, but Eovaldi was superb and I was delighted to see him come out for the seventh. Nice to see a real starting pitcher once in a blue moon. Barnes ahsn't been even sub-par since he signed his big contract and Spider-Tac was banned last season, but otherwise the pen hasn't been horrible. But, oy, Sakamura always walks the tightrope. And tonight, he just hauled off and threw flatfooted to third when all we needed was an accurate toss. And you're right, with even average production from the hitters, Sox would at least be a game or two over .500, which would at least make them seem respectable. I nearly did a spit-take when Dave O'Brien says late in the game that JD Martinez might be available to pinch-hit tonight, but that he might even sit tomorrow since Monday's an off-day and he can really recuperate from his abductor pull. I like Verdugo, but a clean-up hitter he ain't. Martinez is -- and I hate to sound like a talk-show cellar-dweller -- soft, soft, soft. Every tweak is an injury, every ache and pain a week on the bench, and though his bat is good, he has lost his fele for the strike zone. Low and outside pitches that he used to take to right-center are now his weak spot. Strikes out on those all the time. Vasquez is overweight and swings a slow bat. Hernandez has been either too slow or too quick at the plte. He leads the team in foul homers. Still solid in center, at least. And poor Bobby Dalbec. He looks like a lost soul at the plate. Meanwhile, Rizzo leads the AL in homers, IIRC. A sweep would have meant a 5-5 trip and some hope or mild optimism, but this looks like a team that's already seeing the season slipping away as three excellent teams keep pulling away from them. You really have to wonder if they are going to hit, as every Sox player and flack keeps assuring us as if this were April 13th, not the 30th.. How Cora isn't cursing out Bloom for his lack of moves in the off-season is beyond me. I've prayed JD would take the opt out every year he's had one but he keeps staying in Boston. That's a sure sign we overpaid for him, as his agent isn't one to let a penny lay fallow if he can get it for his client. If JD is out, I would have like to see Cora make Devers the DH, slide Dalbec to third, his natural position, and bring up someone like Casas for a looksee. But you have to wait on Casas until the service time deadline goes by, can't give him a full season just to try to make the big league team better. But they need to do something. The top 4 or 5 hitters are ok, but the lower part of the batting order is giving at bats away. When the Sox were good and dangerous offensively, it wasn't just the top of the order, it was a deep line up. They don't have that. Even if the bottom third plays well enough to come close to league average, they won't have that. I love JBJ. He's defense makes the team better, and he's probably the best baserunner they have, but he needs to be the #9 hitter and weakest hitter in the line up. There can't be 2 guys worse hitters than he is in the line up. But on some days, there are 3 worse than him, like tonight. And those hitters are not plus defenders or baserunners making the team better in other ways. They drag the team down in every facet of their game. Bloom deserves some of the blame, but I think they are coming up the spending threshold ownership is willing to be at and are hurting because they are still bearing the weight of some of Dombrowski's bad deals. Sale and JD alone weigh down their salary and neither has played up to their contracts since Dombrowski left. They helped those championship teams but they've hurt the roster flexibility and the ability to go out and spend to improve the roster every year since. So yeah, Bloom needs to do better, but he is doing what he was brought in to do by ownership and get salary under control after they splurged under Dombrowski. If Bloom wants to make improvements, he has to essentially "rob Peter to pay Paul" but unfortunately, because of what Dombrowski left behind, Peter's broke and got nothing to offer to use to pay Paul until JD and Sale are off the books. And that's not on Bloom. -M
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2022 17:21:34 GMT -5
Just checking in on today's game after our D&D session, and it looks like back up catcher Kevin Plawecki was the most effective reliever in a blowout game that had the starter knocked out by a delay.
Time to acquire some bullpen arms that can handle high leverage situations. After this Orioles series, it looks like I may check out until the All Star break and then check to see if they are playing interesting baseball, because what they are putting on the field is hot garbage. If they can't win 1-0, they don't seem to have a chance to win at all.
-M
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